|I) IMPORT - EXPORT DATA IN FEBRUARY, 2021
- Vietnam imported a total of 126,904 mt RCN in February 2021, which is 130.87% more than in February last year. In January-February, imports increased by 121.34% compared to last year.
- On top of that, Vietnam imported 3.302.69 mt of raw cashew kernels with Testa, the equivalent of 14,678 mt RCN. That is -29.51% more than February 2020, but overall, imports of kernels with Testa increased in 2021 by 31% because of large quantities imported in January.
Vietnam exported 22,080 mt of cashew kernels in February 2021. It is 20.79% less than the same period last year. However, since the beginning of the year, exports are still 29.22% above last year, with 69,934 mt exported since January.
II) MARKET NEWS AND EVALUATION
1. Raw cashew nut market
- A new crop of Vietnam /Cambodia has arrived. Some information said that the cashew crop this year of Vietnam and Cambodia is not good, comes quite late and the output is not as good as 2020. Despite the first crop already harvested in the orchards in Vietnam, the second crop representing most of the volume (70%) seems to be coming late. Harvest was expected to start now, but a few weeks are still needed for most of the fruits to reach maturity. Therefore, the Vietnamese RCN will be coming later than usual in the market. Cambodia and India seem to be facing the same situation. Because of this delay, some fear a lower production. This remains to be seen. The weather has been appropriate so far, and it is too early to conclude. We are optimistic!
- In Ivory Coast, the first harvest has started. So far, the production is looking good. But farmers have been expecting rains to improve the quality and quantity of the second and third harvests. Some rain fell last week but probably a little bit too late. We received some reports of flowers having dried on the trees. We remain optimistic because the trees can sustain a little drought during this period, and the conditions were good so far. The production should be good in most of the country if rains keep showering the trees regularly from now on.
2. Cashew Kenel market
- The cashew kernel market is also more active compared to February. From the beginning of March, many European and American customers have the need to buy for prompt and forward delivery. Factories have transacted signicant quantities of goods. Due to the rapid increase in the price of raw cashew, the factories have to balance the cashew kernel price with the current high price of raw cashew and have offered a price of 15-20 cents/lb higher compared to February. However, the customers who bought cashew kernels did not accept the price increase too quickly and at the end of this week, the customers who bought cashew kernels seemed to slow down, waiting to consider the market.
- Currently, cashew kernel consumption in India is better than in 2020. If the world cashew consumption increases as in 2020, it is highly likely that the price of Cashew kernel will rise back to 2.90 to 3.20 USD. However, with the price of other edible nuts still low and the shipping cost is still very high (although there is a decrease of several hundred USD/cont. compared to January), the high price of cashew kernels is unlikely to happen. Factories should be careful in calculating to buy raw cashew at a reasonable.
Source: Cornhouse, Vinacas